Card. The belief: “a trade idea rated 50% comes true half the time.” Of 7 closed crypto trade ideas rated 50% on average, 14% reached their first target before the stop. Too few to judge; so far, well short.
Sep 18, 2026 · scorecard · crypto

Rated 50%, came true 14%

Each crypto trade idea comes with a rating: how likely it is to reach its first target before its stop.

Of 7 closed trade ideas rated 50% on average, 14% reached the first target. The 3 rated a little higher, 55% on average: 0%.

Too few to judge. So far, the ratings ran well above what happened.

Would you trust a rating before you had seen how it did?

Personal technical notes: market scenarios with probabilities and levels, generated semi-automatically. This is NOT financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Data may be incomplete, delayed, or incorrect; decisions and risk are entirely the reader's.

Where each number comes from

Receipts

Every number above was read by code from a line of a versioned measurement file. The version and the hash pin the exact text it came from. Data as of Sep 18, 2026 · 04:40 UTC.

NumbersMeasurementLineVersionSHA-256
50%, 14%, 7Setup scoreboard (crypto)line 259952ea80de1ddd8089b5
3, 55%, 0%Setup scoreboard (crypto)line 260952ea80de1ddd8089b5

Caveats

  • Small sample: fewer than 30 cases, or marked as too few to use.
  • Closed trades only: a post-mortem, not a live position.
  • A measured frequency describes the history it was measured on. It is not a forecast.

The full disclaimer is part of the note above.