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Card. News check: the ECB's Christine Lagarde reportedly moved to block Binance's EU-wide license, Cointelegraph reported on Sep 18 at 02:29 UTC. BNB rose 4.0% over the 24-hour period that included the headline. A bad-sounding headline; BNB did not fall.
Sep 18, 2026 · news check · crypto

A bad-sounding headline. BNB did not fall.

Card. The belief: “when the market turns risk-on, prices keep rising.” Over 430 days on a basket of coins, 91 of them risk-on: on average, the week after a risk-on day went no better than after a risk-off day. Too few to judge; so far, a mood, not a direction.
Sep 18, 2026 · myth check · crypto

Risk-on is a mood, not a direction

Card. What if the turned-down trades had been taken? Stocks, Aug 10 to Sep 6: of 9 turned-down trade ideas simulated to the end, 4 would have made money and 5 would have lost. Closer to even now. Too few to judge.
Sep 18, 2026 · scorecard · stocks

What the rules said no to: stocks, updated

Card. The past week in crypto: Bitcoin +0.6%; UNI +43.5%, the biggest mover among the tracked coins; the Fear & Greed index at 56, the same as a week ago. Next: 32% of open Bitcoin options expire on Sep 25.
Sep 18, 2026 · the week · crypto

The week in crypto

Card. News check: Japan's central bank raised rates to a 31-year high, CoinDesk reported on Sep 18 at 03:03 UTC. Bitcoin rose 0.5% in the hour of the headline. Rates went up; crypto did not fall.
Sep 18, 2026 · news check · crypto

Rates went up. Crypto did not fall.

Card. News check: Circle launched its own blockchain with BlackRock, DTCC and Visa, Decrypt reported on Sep 16 at 14:56 UTC. Circle's stock, CRCL, closed −3.1% the same day. Big names; the stock fell anyway.
Sep 18, 2026 · news check · stocks

Big names, falling stock

Card. Big price swings by day of the week on a basket of coins, where 1.00 is an even share: Monday 1.40, Tuesday 1.00, Wednesday 1.16, Thursday 0.97, Friday 1.17, Saturday 0.51, Sunday 0.80. It says when prices move, not which way.
Sep 18, 2026 · myth check · crypto

Crypto never stops. It still has a Monday

Card. The belief: “when the stock market opens on Monday, it hits the weekend's high or low.” For MSTR it did in 95% of 41 weekends. An ordinary night's high or low was hit the same day 98% of the time. The weekend is not special.
Sep 18, 2026 · myth check · stocks

The weekend is not special

Card. What if the turned-down trades had been taken? Metals, Aug 10 to Sep 6: of 6 turned-down trade ideas simulated to the end, 2 would have made money and 4 would have lost. Saying no avoided losers. Too few to judge.
Sep 18, 2026 · scorecard · metals

What the rules said no to: metals

Card. What if the turned-down trades had been taken? Crypto, Aug 3 to Aug 23: of 21 turned-down trade ideas simulated to the end, 11 would have made money and 10 would have lost. Not mostly losers. A small sample.
Sep 18, 2026 · scorecard · crypto

What the rules said no to: crypto

Card. Did the trade ideas make money? Of 10 closed crypto trade ideas, 10% made money; together they lost. Too few to judge yet.
Sep 18, 2026 · scorecard · crypto

Did the trade ideas make money?

Card. The belief: “prices bounce off support and turn back at resistance.” Checked 4,475 times at support on a basket of coins: the price bounced 47% of the time and broke through 51%. At resistance it turned back 47% of the time. A coin flip.
Sep 18, 2026 · myth check · crypto

Support and resistance: a coin flip

Card. The belief: “when small traders pile into bets on a rise, the price falls next.” Checked 60 times on a basket of coins: the price dropped first 53% of the time. Draw the line a little sooner or later and it is 45% or 46%. It depends on where you draw the line.
Sep 18, 2026 · myth check · crypto

53%, until you move the line

Card. The belief: “a trade idea rated 50% comes true half the time.” Of 7 closed crypto trade ideas rated 50% on average, 14% reached their first target before the stop. Too few to judge; so far, well short.
Sep 18, 2026 · scorecard · crypto

Rated 50%, came true 14%

Card. The belief: “crypto trades around the clock, so the hour doesn't matter.” On a basket of coins, the 4-hour stretch around the US stock market open gets 1.93 times as many big price swings as usual. It says when prices move, not which way.
Sep 18, 2026 · myth check · crypto

Crypto never closes. It still keeps hours

Card. The belief: “when unusually many traders bet on a rise, the price falls.” Checked 125 times on a basket of coins: within 3 days the price dropped first 51% of the time and climbed first 49%. A coin flip.
Sep 18, 2026 · myth check · crypto

Betting against the crowd: a coin flip