Card. The belief: “prices bounce off support and turn back at resistance.” Checked 4,475 times at support on a basket of coins: the price bounced 47% of the time and broke through 51%. At resistance it turned back 47% of the time. A coin flip.
Sep 18, 2026 · myth check · crypto

Support and resistance: a coin flip

A popular belief: “prices bounce off support and turn back at resistance.” Support is a price floor that traders watch; resistance is a ceiling.

The data: daily, weekly and monthly floors and ceilings on a basket of coins. Of 4,475 times the price came down to a floor, it bounced 47% of the time and broke through 51%. At a ceiling, 4,181 times: it turned back 47% and broke through 52%.

A coin flip, both ways. A floor or a ceiling is where people look. It did not decide which way the price went.

What would make a floor more than a coin flip for you?

Where each number comes from

Receipts

Every number above was read by code from a line of a versioned measurement file. The version and the hash pin the exact text it came from. Data as of Sep 18, 2026 · 04:40 UTC.

NumbersMeasurementLineVersionSHA-256
4,475, 47%, 51%Structure measurements (crypto)line 24952ea80566d284c9927
47%, 4,181, 52%Structure measurements (crypto)line 23952ea80566d284c9927

Caveats

  • A measured frequency describes the history it was measured on. It is not a forecast.

No disclaimer was needed: the note gives no price levels, forecasts, direction, calls to action or trade results.