Card. What if the turned-down trades had been taken? Stocks, Aug 10 to Sep 6: of 9 turned-down trade ideas simulated to the end, 4 would have made money and 5 would have lost. Closer to even now. Too few to judge.
Sep 18, 2026 · scorecard · stocks

What the rules said no to: stocks, updated

Before a trade idea is taken, a set of rules can say no. The scorecard does not forget those ideas: it simulates each one as if it had been taken.

Stocks, Aug 10 to Sep 6: the rules said no to 20 trade ideas. 9 could be simulated to the end: 4 would have made money and 5 would have lost. Taken together, those 9 would have lost money. The rest never got going or could not be simulated.

With another finished week, the count is closer to even than before. Saying no still avoided more losers than winners, but only just.

These are simulated trades, and 4 weeks are a small sample.

How many finished weeks would you want to see before trusting a filter?

Personal technical notes: market scenarios with probabilities and levels, generated semi-automatically. This is NOT financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Data may be incomplete, delayed, or incorrect; decisions and risk are entirely the reader's.

Where each number comes from

Receipts

Every number above was read by code from a line of a versioned measurement file, or counted and summed by code over the lines named. The version and the hash pin the exact text it came from. Data as of Sep 18, 2026 · 18:18 UTC.

NumbersMeasurementLineVersionSHA-256
Aug 10, Sep 6, 20, 9, 4, 5Setup scoreboard (stocks)computed from 20 linesda26695d9db5d81547c

Caveats

  • Small sample: fewer than 30 cases, or marked as too few to use.
  • Mechanical shadow: simulated trades, not live results.
  • A measured frequency describes the history it was measured on. It is not a forecast.

The full disclaimer is part of the note above.